Clunky Flow

FineTuna,
makes the back-and forth
of fine tuning designs online
an achingly simple
and pleasant task.

Another great tool from the guys that brought us Toddle “beautifully simple email newsletters.”

3 minute screen cast shows how simple this is to use.
Play in FULLSCREEN mode.

FULLSCREEN VIEW———————MOUSEOVER BOTTOM RIGHT—^

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See the demo
I always used to believe that there is nothing as powerful as an idea whose time has come.
Now, I’m not so sure.
Now, I’m beginning to think that there is nothing as powerful as a simple demo.
If you have not seen this yet.
Go and look now.

Out of the blocks
Back in 2002, Wolfram published his grand theory in ‘A New Kind of Science’.
It left the scientific establishment standing awestruck.
And not a little bewildered.

They have remained that way since.
Rooted to the spot.

As he powered ahead.

What’s the big idea?

In ‘A New Kind of Science’ he mapped out a new theoretical framework.
With Wolfram Alpha, he demonstrates the power of that theory in practice.

So what’s does his theory have to say?

It shows how simple hypotheses.
Can be used. To capture the operation
of. Large complex natural systems.

It is a veritable ‘How To’. As in. How to probe
what is going on in large complex natural systems.

Is there anything practical here?

This was massive. It shook the (academic) world.
But, that is not the end of the story.
In fact, its just the beginning.

With Alpha, Wolfram shows how to put this theory into practice.

What the link between the theory and practice again?

With Wolfram Alpha, at its most basic:

1. You enter a ’simple hypothesis’ into the search/query box
2. It takes that simple hypothesis and tests it against a massively complex set of data about the natural world.
3. It returns a result. Or set of results.
4. You refine your hypothesis and test again.

Okay so that’s the basic. What’s the next step?

Its not much of a leap to automate this recursive process and noodle through data to uncover data relationships and crystallise them into concepts that can be tested again. This is practically a description of thinking.

This is the scientific method. Writ large. Running at light speed. Automated. And practiced against massive and massively complex data sets. As opposed to through physical experiments set up in labs with bunsen burners and test tubes.

Wolfram delivers the demo very matter of fact. Is this really a game changer?

Before the demo I was thinking “too good to be true.”
But this demo has blown my socks off.
I now think this will change more than the game.

This will change everything.
Your personal life.
Your work.
Your industry.
Your country.
Your world.

I want to shout out
“Welcome to the inflection point of the information revolution”.
“The singularity is just around the corner.”
So yes I’m excited.

I am daring to believe.

Bonus link:
Joe Drumgoole has a (kinda) Top 10 on why this is a game changer in Silicon Valley answering the ‘meh..sure won’t Google just buy it or bury it anyway’. Fave line from the top “Alpha.. generates new information from data as opposed to slavishly returning the mob results that Google collects.”

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Flashmob = For Ad hoc fun. In public places. Just gather a mob together in a flash.

3 easy steps.

1. Tell everyone you know.
2. Draw a circle on your hand.
3. Turn up.

Here’s a taste of what they did in New York.

In London. A massive free-for-all spontaneous pillow fight.

In Dublin…

Tonight at 8pm. Outside the Stag’s Head.

View Larger Map

This will be an especially special flashmob as it is organised by internet rockstars Jonah Peretti and Ze Frank. You’ll never get a better chance to make internet history in Dublin. Don’t miss out!

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Twitter almost solves the biggest baddest puzzle of our time.
But its not there yet.
And I think Twission is the final piece in that puzzle.

So what is the biggest baddest puzzle of our time.
In short, too much of a good thing.
Information overload.

We live in an age where we are easily
overwhelmed by the constant flood of
high value information.

Information makes you smarter.
Until it becomes overwhelming.
Then it makes you dumb.

Drinking from the firehose is not the best way to quench a thirst.

So how can we cope?
Well, Twitter helps a lot.

It delivers the first part of the solution.

It enforces brevity.
And that’s good.

It also deliver the second part of the solution:

Finding what is relevant to you.
By using friends as filters.

The third part of the solution?

Real-time search of real-time discussion.
This is why Twitter purchased ‘Summize.’

The final part of the solution.

Is real-time search within the bounds of ‘friends as filters’
This delivers real-time results most relevant to you.

This is exactly what is provided by Twission.

Check it out. Twission.

Note: its quite slow at the moment, but you’ll quickly get the idea

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The 10 principles are stolen directly from Nassim Nicholas Taleb article in Today’s FT.

Taleb, a veteran trader and dinstinguished professor. And views economies as complex adaptive systems. So it’ll come as no surprise that I’m a fan. He has also published two very famous books in The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable and “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets”

The original article is here. Its already very short and sweet. I highly recommend it. If you haven’t clicked through yet. Here’s an even shorter version.

1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small . Nothing should ever become too big to fail.

2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing.

3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean.

4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant - or your financial risks . No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards.

5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. Complexity from globalisation…needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products.

6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning. Complex derivatives need to be banned because nobody understands them and few are rational enough to know it.

7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Governments cannot stop the rumours.

8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial. We need rehab.

9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control).

10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. This crisis cannot be fixed with makeshift repairs.

[Apply these principles and] we will see an economic life closer to our biological environment: smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage. A world in which entrepreneurs, not bankers, take the risks and companies are born and die every day without making the news.

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The news.

Facebook, once again, got smacked on the wrist by its userbase.

Zuckerberg has indicated that the swift and negative reaction to their recent efforts to amend the terms of service had helped him realise it was now time to deal with this.

Facebook plans to prevent this happening again.

They’ve presented their plan as ‘Facebook opens discussion on a ‘bill of rights’ for the governance of their userbase.’

What this really means:

The reality is that this intervention will affect the SOCIAL DYNAMIC on Facebook in a very significant way.

This intervention will:

1. Defuse ‘Stop Energy’.
2. Clear the way for ‘Forward Motion’.

More on ‘Stop Energy’ and ‘Forward Motion’.

‘Stop Energy’:

Most types of collective action organize around ‘Stop Energy’. Facebook users have mobilised and engaged in ‘Stop Energy’ to great success time and again. Its the only effective power available to the users of Facebook. Or any large-scale informally organised collective.

Rerouting ‘Stop Energy’ into a pseudo-democratic consultation process will effectively quench its power. As an act of political hegemony if would be described as the employment of a bureaucracy to make power seem remote and tiresome to engage in for the typical user on any particular issue.

‘Forward Motion’:

”Forward Motion’ is very difficult to initiate or progress in informally organised collectives.

However, ‘Forward Motion’ is the raison d’etre of formal organisations and firms. Facebook, like any other formal organisation is a lean, mean and very effective machine at mobilising ‘Forward Motion’. Naturally, Facebook will leverage this ability to drive forward the Facebook agenda.

Political hegemony:

At large scale, collective action is best mobilised by a simple coordinating signal.
And best extinguished by efforts at large-scale collective conversation.
Facebook now reroutes collective action into collective conversation.

Its a master-stroke of a political hegemony.
Its a classic ‘bait-and-switch’.

Nice stroke, Facebook.

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I proposed the simple idea of ‘internet only’ ‘new banks’ back here in “My friend the economist and my dumb question.”

Since then Buiter, Stiglitz, Soros and Romer have proposed similar schemes. New banks: Did I get the scoop? Did you hear it here first?

But the really good news is that Marc Andreesen is now pushing the idea.
Why is this good news?
Well, Marc Andreessen could carry this idea.

Andreessen’s got all the right credentials ie he is a wunderkind of the industry of wealth-creating technological innovation and has none of the wrong ones ie he is not of the wealth-destroying financial innovation industry.

And Obama and Andreessen are already personally acquainted.

Can Andreessen carry this simple idea to move Obama? I hope so.

And I hope it can be done in time to demonstrate the Irish leaders that there is a smarter and simpler way.

Talk about ‘new banks’ 50 minutes in. Transcript below. But note that as always Andreessen give great value entire way through.

Good banks, bad banks, doesn’t matter. What we need are new banks. And I actually think what we need — and I think the valley can play a role in this, I think there should be a new wave of financial institutions that should be created from scratch today. And they should take the role.

So instead of trying to unwind some big bank that’s underwater, and hundreds of billion dollars insolvent, let’s create a whole bunch of new ones.

And by the way, let’s have them all be new and online.

So instead of having all this infrastructure and all these old systems and these ATM’s and all this stuff, let’s do purely online, purely Internet banks.

Purely virtual, much lower cost structure.

Because it’s going to take — even if you can figure out a way to fix the old banks, it’s going to take a long time. I mean it is a very complicated and involved process. They are deeply broken in very fundamental ways.

Create a new bank. I mean a bank is a simple concept. You can create a bank in software.

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I wrote about my idea of ‘My friend the economist and my dumb question‘ here on 23rd January.

I’m now in very good company.

From Willem Buiter at the Financial Times on January 29, 2009 “The ‘Good Bank’ Solution”

There is an alternative solution to the problem of valuing the toxic assets. It would not involve nationalising the existing banks. Instead the state would create one or more new ’good’ banks - all state-owned and state-funded to begin with.

From Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz on 02 Feb 2009 at Davos. “Let banks fail” reported in the Telegraph.

“the government should allow every distressed bank to go bankrupt and set up a fresh banking system under temporary state control rather than cripple the country by propping up a corrupt edifice”.

From George Soros on 04 Feb in the WSJ “We Can Do Better Than a ‘Bad Bank’ “

… about $1.5 trillion is likely to be required to recapitalise the existing banks properly. This money could be leveraged a lot more effectively if most of it were injected into the new good banks, unencumbered with the toxic waste of the existing banks.

From Paul Romer in the WSJ on 06 Feb “Let’s Start Brand New Banks”

Everyone agrees that the United States urgently needs a few good banks. Turning bad banks into good banks is a difficult and risky way to get them. It’s simpler and safer to start entirely new banks.

And from Willem Buiter again at the Financial Times on 08 Feb “Good Bank/New Bank vs. Bad Bank: a rare example of a no-brainer” rounding up the ongoing discussion:

I claim no authorship or originality for the ‘good bank’ proposal. The idea is obvious and no doubt was floating around the blogosphere and elsewhere as soon as the magnitude of the insolvency disaster in the banking sector became apparent.

The US, the UK and several other continental European countries are at risk of emulating Ireland, where the government first guaranteed all the liabilities of the banks (other than equity) and only after that began to nationalise the banks. This leaves the Irish government today in the not too enviable position of having to choose between sovereign default and bleeding the tax payer and the beneficiaries of normal public spending to make whole all the creditors of the banks.

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How to make a mug of Guy Kawasaki. And all his friends.

In three easy steps.

For all you haX0rs. Here’s the sxoop.

Step 1: Enter his name (” guykawasaki “) here.

Step 2: Click on Grrrr…GET THE MUG!

Step 3: Crack your knuckles in satisfaction. You’ve just made a mug of Guy Kawasaki. And all his friends.

Bonus step: Put the kettle on.

For the l33ts among you who want to know more. Check http://bit.ly/4Beq6l http://tinyurl.com/bf9tum and Top 5 twitter applications

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To be honest, I’ve baulked at signing up for IGOPeople for a long time. Seemed like JASN.

Today, purely as part of the relaunched Tuesday Push, I signed up.

I have to say. Very impressed.

Got me a personal welcome message from Campbell Scott nudging me over to last weeks highlights to get me started.

There I found a discussion thread on online trust, reputation and identity. My personal geek heaven.

Having left a typically overlong comment (i’ve no discipline) I started to click through and add people as friends.

It turns out there’s a lot of people on here I know. Which, lets face it, is the most important thing in a social network.

All in all. Highly recommended. See you in there.

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