The next era of the web. Don’t overlook the blindingly obvious
Jul 3rd 2007NiaLLLarkinSocial networks & Social software & Uncategorized & designsocialtool & sociableblindeye & socialsoftware
Read/WriteWeb have produced another of those really excellent “what has happened and where we might be going” articles. Its an exploration of the paradigm shifts that have occured and a look at what’s next after social networking.
I like it. It reminds us of a few things that are so blindingly obvious that they are very often overlooked.
The two foundational observations in the post appear to be:
- Social interactions have taken over from search as the centre of the internet.
- People are lazy
Social interactions are at the centre of the new web:
….since Facebook is already widely accepted as the next big thing, the new question is: what is the next “next big thing”? Is it already out there? To start with check out the graph below, summarizing the Web’s stages up till now and our vision for the future:
As you can see, the current trend is for social interactions to take over search as the pivot of the internet. But if you’re not convinced, here are a few examples of why:
- Google and Microsoft’s billion dollar ad partnerships with MySpace and Facebook respectively;
- Yahoo and Viacom’s bets on Facebook;
- Yahoo’s rivals.com acquisition and rumors of Fox offering to sell MySpace to Yahoo! in exchange for a 25% stake.
People are lazy:
Age #2.5 - On-demand Video
It’s a fact that humans are born lazy. Yes, we love spending time on the internet and interact with many things; but still many of us prefer spending our free time on TV and watching meaningless shows…Age #4 - Joost ???
It’s hard to guess the 4th phase of the web because we don’t even have the 3rd one yet, fully. But what the past eras (see ages 1.5, 4 and 2.5) show is that we will end up with the rebirth of online TV. Since we are all born lazy, video on demand is the way to go. And what Joost is offering is higher quality content (thanks to their collaboration with big content providers), higher quality watching experience (thanks to P2P technology) and a legal hassle-free alternative to YouTube, which has already shown tremendous success
This post resonates with me cos it reminds us why we must never underestimate peoples desire to socialize or people’s inherent laziness. We cannot afford to overlook these facts if we want to have a hand in shaping the next paradigm. In fact, its imperative that we embrace these truths of human nature.
Of course, this has huge implications for anyone and everyone hoping to shape the next paradigm. Of course this has huge implications for the semantic web initiative. Any initiative that seeks to succeed by meeting real human needs will have to embrace the social forces that are the hunger for social interaction and the powerful inherent desire to avoid any effort. IMHO new initiatives have to lubricate sociability and interactive flow first and contribute to the commons as a poor but essential second. That is, contributions to the commons made by individual users ought to be mostly invisible to the users as they make them but also such that the users can feel the benefits of cumulative contribution without any particular sense of contributing effort in the first place. In short, quality and rewarding social interactions should be as easily and as readily available to everyone as the air we breathe. How to achieve that is another days post.
A post that will not only tackle the truism that people are lazy but also the truisms that people lie and are also often stupid.
In the meantime, for some well-crafted and entertaining thoughts on how human nature musses up well thought out schema see Cory Doctorov’s “Metacrap: Putting the torch to seven straw-men of meta-utopia”
